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In its newly released semi-annual Mongolia Economic Update, the World Bank said that the imbalance of a persistently large balance of payments is a key challenge to the Mongolian economy. The World Bank advises that current fiscal and monetary policies should be further tightened to address the growing deficit and to ensure macro-economic stability going forward.
In 2013, the economy is expected to maintain double digit growth due to expansionary economic policies and resumed production at the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Meanwhile, the current account deficit will reach around 30 percent of GDP in 2013. The large external imbalance reflects weak mineral exports but also stems from expansionary economic policies that have been boosting import demands since 2011. Macro-economic policies continue to be focused on stimulus in 2013, adding to the pressures on the balance of payments and inflation.
Under the framework of current economic policy, pressure is not likely to ease in the near future in light of the high demand for imports and weak minerals market prospects. The downside risk will be exacerbated if the Mongolian economy faces an unfavorable economic environment from further slowing of China’s economic growth, the adverse impact of global quantitative easing, and the continued weak minerals market.
The government has taken positive steps towards economic stability in recent months. The recent adoption of the new Investment Law will provide positive momentum to restore foreign investment in Mongolia. The fiscal consolidation plan, including the recent amendment of the 2013 budget, is also a step towards a more sustainable fiscal path.
The World Bank expects Mongolia’s economy to grow at 12.5 percent for 2013, a downward revision from its previous forecast of 13 percent. The revised forecast reflects that economic growth in China and the recovery of the minerals market have been slower than expected.
| WB urges Mongolia to tighten economic policies toward economic stability | ||
| Үзсэн: 2154 | Mongolian National Broadcaster |
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